Friday, December 14, 2012

Oscar Watch 12/14 Update

Well it has been a big week of announcements.  The LA Film Critic Association announced their awards on Sunday then the Critic Choice Award Nominations were announced on Tuesday, SAG Nominations on Wednesday, and The Golden Globe Nominations on Thursday.  What does this mean?  Well, each one had their little surprises but the list of Best Picture Nominees are starting to look a little clearer. 

The LA Film Critic Association is notorious for trying to be different.  So their pick of Amour as Best Picture is not that much of a surprise.  It gives Amour a slight bump in the Best Picture category but still think it will be nominated and win Best Foreign Film (which the LAFCA gave to Holy Motors).  The movie that has been getting most of the previous awards Zero Dark Thirty did not do very well and only managed to score a Best Editing and runner up for Best Director.  Not sure if this hurts its chances at the Oscars or not.  The biggest bump goes to The Master which scored Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best production Design.  It was also runner up for Best Picture and Best Score.  It was a good thing it got that bump because it was going to get knocked down again later in the week. 

The Critic Choice Awards are nominated by movie critics all across the country.  While it is widely known that the critics usually disagree with the Academy voters this year’s nominees seem fairly predictable.  Lincoln received a record 13 nominations with Silver Linings Playbook and Les Miserables scoring multiple nominations also.  Probably the biggest surprise was the love for Skyfall.  Getting a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Javier Bardem and Best Supporting Actress for Judi Dench.  While I can see Judi Dench sneaking in I don’t think Javier Bardem will get an Oscar nomination.

The SAG Nominations are the most telling and had the most surprises.  Since the actors make up the bulk of the voting population of the Academy their vote can go a long way in getting a movie nominated and a win.  The equivalent to Best Picture at the SAG Awards is the Outstanding Performance by a Cast.  With  Lincoln, Argo, Les Miserables, and Silver Linings Playbook all making the list they have pretty much solidified their status as Best Picture nominees.  The inclusion of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel in that list was a bit of a surprise and while I don’t think it will get a Best Picture Nomination it might create some buzz for Maggie Smith as Best Supporting Actress.  While the movie was well received when it was released it has not had much buzz this award season.  The inclusion of Nicole Kidman as Best Supporting Actress for The Paperboy was a big shock since it was a movie I never even had heard of.  Also another nod to Javier Bardem for Skyfall which took me by surprise.  The biggest blow went to The Master and Django UnchainedThe Master only got one nomination for Phillip Seymour Hoffman as Best Supporting Actor and Django Unchained got zero nominations.  While Jessica Chastain was nominated for Best Actress in Zero Dark Thirty it’s lack of Best Ensemble might hurt its chances to win Best Picture.

Last but not least The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced the Golden Globe Nominations.  With the categories split between drama and musical/comedy it is sometimes hard to decide who has momentum.  Also the HFPA is known for nominating movies based on star power and not quality (a probably reason for the complete snub of Beasts of the Southern Wild).  The biggest surprise of the nominations was the inclusion of Salmon Fishing in the Yemen which got 3 nominations Best Picture-Comedy of Musical, Best Actress-Comedy of Musical, and Best Actor-Comedy or Musical.  A movie that had zero buzz coming into award season I don’t think these nominations will do anything.  Nicole Kidman was also nominated for Best Supporting Actress in The Paperboy and could help her get a nom but I still consider her chances slim. 

Right now my predictions for Nominations based on Buzz not my opinion of what is best.

Best Picture
Very Likely Nominations
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

Probable Nomination
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom

Long Shot
The Sessions
The Hobbit

Best Director
Very Likely Nomination
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ben Affleck (Argo)

Possible Nomination
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Long Shots
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit)

Best Actor
Very Likely Nominations
Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Possible Nominations
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

Long Shot
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)

Best Actress
Very Likely Nominations
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Possible Nominations
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Hellen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Marrion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

Long Shots
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Rachel Weisz (Deep Blue Sea)

Best Supporting Actor
Very Likely Nominations
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Possible Nominations
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Long Shot
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
John Goodman (Argo)

Best Supporting Actress
Very Likely Nominations
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Amy Adams (The Master)

Possible Nominations
Maggie Smith (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Long Shot
Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

Best Foreign Film
Amour seems to be the only lock and likely to win

Best Animated Feature
Very Likely Nominations
Wreck-It Ralph
Rise of the Guardians

Possible Nominations

Best Original Screenplay
Very Likely Nomination
Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Possible Nominations
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdon)
Rian Johnson (Looper)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Very Likely Nomination
Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
Chris Terrio (Argo)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
David Magee (Life of Pi)

Possible Nominations
William Nicholson (Les Miserables)
Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
Lucy Aibar and Ben Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)


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