Well it’s one of my favorite days of the year Oscar day. For some inexplicable reason I have always been obsessed with the Oscars.
This year is the second year in a row where I was not able to see all the movies nominated for Best Picture but that is not going to stop me from making predictions.
The second year in a row where 9 movies are nominated and this year I only managed to see 6. But a clear front runner has emerged
Prediction- Argo – The start of Oscar season there was no clear front runner and seemed a toss-up between Argo, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty. But after the nominations were announced and Ben Affleck did not get a best Director nomination people felt the need to rally around Argo and has been cleaning up every award since then.
Who Should Win- Lincoln or Django Unchained -Like I said I only have seen 6 movies in the category but as much as I liked Argo I would rather see Lincoln or Django Unchained win Best Picture.
With Argo the front runner for Best Picture and Affleck not nominated for Best Director it makes this category a little tougher to predict.
Prediction – Steven Spielberg-Lincoln – Spielberg is the safe choice in this one for Academy voters.
Who Should Win – Steven Spielberg – I have seen 4 out of 5 movies in this category and while I really liked Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook I feel Spielberg did a great job of making a movie about politics a fascinating story and showed Lincoln as not only a great politician but a fully rounded person.
This is the one category that is a no doubter
Prediction – Daniel Day Lewis- Lincoln – He has been a front runner since it was announced he was going to star in the movie.
Who Should Win – Daniel Day Lewis- Part of the reason Lincoln was such a great movie was Lewis’ ability to convincingly show all sides of Lincoln. Not only as a Politian, but a father, a husband, and a friend.
Not as easy to predict as Best Actor. Jennifer Lawrence has been getting plenty of awards leading up to the Oscars but Emmanuelle Riva has been slowly gaining a following.
Prediction – Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook I think the momentum that Riva has been getting is too little too late.
Who Should win – Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook Hard for me to say I have only seen two performances nominated but I did love Jennifer Lawrence and she is one of the reasons that movie worked so well.
Best Original Screenplay
This seems to be a category that is kind of up in the air. First we got the rematch between Mark Boal and Quentin Tarantino who went head to head a few years ago with Mark Boal coming out ahead for The Hurt Locker. But also in the mix this year is the love that Amour seems to be getting lately and it could pull off the upset if Boal and Tarantino split the vote.
Prediction – Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty – Zero Dark Thirty got a lot of praise early on in the Oscar season but it has really fallen off. I think this is the one award it will win.
Who Should Win – Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained. Tarantino is one of the most original screenwriters around who not only comes up with interesting stories but has great dialogue.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Another tough category. Lincoln had been the front runner for so long but with the resurgence of Argo and it’s win at the Writers Guild it seems it has the momentum. But you can’t count out Silver Linings Playbook which made a simple romantic comedy something special and the writer of Life of Pi who took what many considered an unfilmable book and made a great movie.
Prediction – Chris Terrio-Argo – again with the snub of Ben Affleck for director it seems like everyone else that worked on Argo is going to get rewarded.
Who Should Win – Tony Kushner for Lincoln like I said lots of great stuff in this category but again I am going with Tony Kushner. The movie is about a bunch of guys talking and he managed to keep it interesting.
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction – Robert De Niro- Silver Linings Playbook – I am going to predict a minor upset here. I don’t think Alan Arkin will benefit from the Argo love but I think they are going to reward De Niro who has not won an Academy Award in over 30 years.
Who Should Win – Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained – One of the best things about Django Unchained was Waltz’s performances but I think this is the wrong category for him since he is more of a main actor then a supporting actor.
Best Supporting Actress
This is the one category that historically has given us the biggest surprises. But the past few years it has been pretty predictable.
Prediction – Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables – Like Daniel Day Lewis she has been winning every award so far and I don’t her losing here.
Who Should Win – Amy Adams- The Master. I have seen 4 out of the 5 movies and Les Miserables is the only one I haven’t see so I can’t say if Anne Hathaway should win. But out of the other 4 Amy Adams, Sally Field, and Helen Hunt are some of my favorite performances this year so it is hard for me to pick. But I am going to say Amy Adams It is the one performances that truly surprised me. She holds her with both Joaquin Phoenix and Phillip Seymour Hoffman and manages to shine.
My picks for the rest of the categories
Best Animated Feature Film
Frankenweenie– I haven’t seen any movie in this category but I think it comes down to Frankenweenie and Wreck-it Ralph and I am going with Tim Burton this year.
Life of Pi - No movie looked more beautiful than Life of Pi this year but voters could go for the more traditional cinematography of Skyfall
Anna Karenina – Big costume drama always wins this award
Searching for Sugar Man – Searching for Sugar Man has been getting all the pre-Oscar Awards seems like a sure thing.
Open Heart – When it comes to the shorts it is a pure guess.
Argo – Again the Argo train I think wins it. Although it could as easily go to Zero Dark Thirty.
Foreign Language Film
Amour – This is as much as a sure thing as you can get
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – The makeup had to be amazing because any flaws would have been obvious at the high frame rate.
Lincoln – because I think John Williams will finally win again after 30 years.
Skyfall – Because it is one of the best Bond songs in a long time and everyone loves Adele
Life of Pi – I think Life of Pi will win in most of the technical awards
Paperman – Not betting against Pixar in this category.
Live Action Short
Henry – another pure guess
Argo – Because everyone loves Argo
Les Miserables – Apparently having people sing live makes this hard.
Life of Pi – again the movie looked amazing and was done with mostly special effects