Oscar Season 2013 Update

Now that the LA Film Critics, the Boston Film Critics, AFI have, the Golden Globe nominations, the SAG Nominations have been announced let’s see how the Oscar race has changed. 

The LA Film Critics has had a track record of going its own way with Best Picture and it doesn’t usually line up with the Oscars but their acting picks are good indications of were the buzz is going.  And since the actors are the biggest voting branch for the Oscars their selections of the SAG awards are an important indicator and The Butler gets the biggest bump because of that.  AFI lists 10 movies in no particular order and no big surprises it’s pretty much the same 10 movies everyone has already been talking about.  The Golden Globe Nominations with their splitting of categories between Drama and Comedy make it hard for any movie to really gain momentum but the lack of nominations for Saving Mr. Banks might hurt it a bit.   Also this year their decisions on what is a drama and comedy seem a bit odd.  Anyway here are my predictions and the actually winners are listed below. 

Best Picture

Very Likely Nominations

12 Years a Slave-Still my pick to win it all. 

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

American Hustle-getting some backlash already so but still likely to get a nom.

Her-Added this to the likely nomination because it is getting a lot of praise.  Not sure if it can pull out a win though. 

Probable Nomination

Nebraska

The Wolf of Wall Street

Saving Mr. Banks

Captain Phillips

Fruitvale Station

Long Shot

Philomena

The Butler

Blue is the Warmest Color

All is Lost-Despite everyone loving it seems not likely to get a nomination but definitely an acting nomination and possibly a screenwriting.

Best Director

Very Likely Nomination

Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Possible Nomination

Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

David O. Russell (American Hustle)

John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)

Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Long Shots

Spike Jonze (Her)

Lee Daniels (The Butler)

Best Actor

Likely Nominations

Robert Redford (All is Lost)

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Possible Nominations-with those 4 almost guaranteed a nomination hard to say who the 5^th spot will go to. 

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Oscar Issacs (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)

Long Shot

Forrest Whitiker (The Butler)

Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Best Actress

Likely Nominations

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Emma Thompsons (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations

Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Long Shots

Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Best Supporting Actor

Likely Nominations

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Long Shot

James Franco (Spring Breakers)

James Gandolfini (Enough Said)-he is gaining momentum but still don’t see it happening. 

Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Best Supporting Actress-

Likely Nominations

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Possible Nominations

June Squibb (Nebraska)

Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Long Shot

Scarlett Johansson (Her)

Best Original Screenplay

Likely Nominations

The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel (Saving Mr. Banks)

Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)

Probable Nominations

Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Eric Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Long Shots

J.C. Chandor (All is Lost)

Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Likely Nominations

Terence Winter (Wolf of Wall Street)

John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

Probable Nominations

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)

Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)

Tracy Letts (August: Osage County)

Long Shots

Steve Conrad (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)

Best Foreign Film

Likely Nominations

Blue is the Warmest Color -The only movie right now that is a lock for Best Foreign Film

Probably Nominations

The Past

The Great Beauty

Best Animated Feature

Likely Nominations

The Wind Rises

Frozen

Probable Nominations

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Monsters University

Best Documentary

Likely Nominations

The Act of Killing

Stories We Tell

Probable Nominations

Blackfish

The Square  

LA Film Critics

Film:

Tie, Gravity and Her

Director:

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (Runner-up: Spike Jonze, Her.)

Actor:

Bruce Dern, Nebraska (Runner-up: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave.)

Actress:

Tie, Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, and Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color.

Documentary:

Stories We Tell (Runner-up: The Act of Killing.)

Supporting actress:

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (Runner-up: June Squibb, Nebraska.)

Supporting actor:

Tie, James Franco, Spring Breakers, and Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club.

Screenplay:

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight  (Runner Up: Spike Jonze, Her)

Animation:

Ernest & Celestine (Runner-up: The Wind Rises.)

Cinematography:

Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity. (Runner-up, Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis.)

Film Editing:

Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity. (Runner-up: Shane Carruth andDavid Lowery, Upstream Color.)

Score:

T Bone Burnett, Inside Llewyn Davis (Runner-up: Arcade Fire and Owen Pallett, Her.)

Production design:

K.K. Barrett, Her. (Runner-up: Jess Gonchor, Inside Llewyn Davis.)

Foreign-language film:

Blue Is the Warmest Color. (Runner-up: The Great Beauty.)

Boston Film Critics

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave

Best Actor

Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor

 James Gandolfini for Enough Said

Best Supporting Actress

June Squibb for Nebraska

Best Director

Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

Best Screenplay

Nicole Holofcener for Enough Said

Best Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki for Gravity

Best Documentary

The Act of Killing

Best Foreign-Language Film

Wadjda

Best Animated Film

The Wind Rises

Best Film Editing (awarded in memory of Karen Schmeer)

Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill for Rush

Best New Filmmaker (awarded in memory of David Brudnoy) - 

Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station

Best Ensemble Cast

Nebraska

Best Use of Music in a Film

Inside Llewyn Davis

AFI

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Fruitvale Station

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Saving Mr. Banks

The Wolf of Wall Street

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Dallas Buyers Club

Lee Daniels' The Butler

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

June Squibb (Nebraska)

Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

All is Lost

Fast & Furious 6

Lone Survivor

Rush

The Wolverine

 

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

Best Motion Picture - Drama

"12 Years a Slave"

"Captain Phillips"

"Gravity"

"Philomena"

"Rush"

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

"American Hustle"

"Her"

"Inside Llewyn Davis"

"Nebraska"

"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"

Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"

Judi Dench, "Philomena"

Emma Thompson, "Saving Mr. Banks"

Kate Winslet, "Labor Day"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years A Slave"

Idris Elba, "Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom"

Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips"

Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Robert Redford, "All Is Lost"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Amy Adams, "American Hustle"

Julie Delpy, "Before Midnight"

Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Enough Said"

Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Christian Bale, "American Hustle"

Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"

Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Oscar Isaac, "Inside Llewyn Davis"

Joaquin Phoenix, "Her"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Sally Hawkins, "Blue Jasmine"

Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"

Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years A Slave"

Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"

June Squibb, "Nebraska"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"

Daniel Bruhl, "Rush"

Bradley Cooper, "American Hustle"

Michael Fassbender, "12 Years A Slave"

Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, "Gravity"

Paul Greengrass, "Captain Phillips"

Steve McQueen, "12 Years A Slave"

Alexander Payne, "Nebraska"

David O. Russell, "American Hustle"

Best Screenplay

Spike Jonze, "Her"

Bob Nelson, "Nebraska"

Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, "Philomena"

John Ridley, "12 Years a Slave"

David O. Russell, "American Hustle"

Best Animated Film

"The Croods"

"Despicable Me 2"

"Frozen"

Best Original Score - Motion Picture

"All Is Lost"

"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"

"Gravity"

"The Book Thief"

"12 Years a Slave"

Best Original Song - Motion Picture

"Atlas," Coldplay ("The Hunger Games: Catching Fire")

"Let It Go," Idina Menzel ("Frozen")

"Ordinary Love," U2 ("Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom")

"Please Mr. Kennedy," Oscar Isaac, Justin Timberlake and Adam Driver ("Inside Llewyn Davis")

"Sweet Than Fiction," Taylor Swift ("One Chance")

Best Foreign Language Film

"Blue Is The Warmest Color" (France)

"The Great Beauty" (Italy)

"The Hunt" (Denmark)

"The Past" (Iran)

"The Wind Rises" (Japan)

Oscar Season 2013

This week we saw the first two critic awards of the season.  First The New York Film Critic Circle announced their awards on Tuesday then The National Board of Review announced their awards on Wednesday.

To sum it up after 2 awards there are no clear front runner.  The NYFCC named American Hustle as Best Picture while American Hustle got shut out at The National Board of Review as they named Spike Jonze's Her as Best Picture.  What I like about NBR is that they list their Top 10 so while their winner doesn't usually win Best Picture their Top 10 usually is a good indicator of what movies we will be taking about the next month.  Worth noting is that American Hustle didn't even crack the NBR's Top 10 but The Secret Life of Walter Mitty did which has not been getting much buzz at all.

What does this all mean? Well of course it's too early to say. But it is obvious that this year has a crop of movies that at this point are all kind of equal.  While I still think 12 Years a Slave is the front runner but it is still early.  Also The Wolf of Wall Street is kind of an unknown as most critics have not seen it.

Here are the my predictions at this point

Best Picture
Very Likely Nominations
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis

Probable Nomination
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
All is Lost

Long Shot
Philomena
The Butler
Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Director
Very Likely Nomination
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Possible Nomination
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Long Shots
Spike Jonze (Her)
Lee Daniels (The Butler)

Best Actor
Likely Nominations
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Possible Nominations
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Oscar Issacs (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)


Long Shot
Forrest Whitiker (The Butler)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Best Actress
Likely Nominations
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Emma Thompsons (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Long Shots
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)-Never thought I would list Meryl Streep as a long shot but have not heard much buzz at all.

Best Supporting Actor
Likely Nominations
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Long Shot
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Best Supporting Actress-
Likely Nominations
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Possible Nominations
Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Long Shot
Scarlett Johansson (Her)

Best Original Screenplay
Likely Nominations
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel (Saving Mr. Banks)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)

Probable Nominations
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Eric Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Nominations

Terence Winter (Wolf of Wall Street)

John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

Probable Nominations
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)

Best Foreign Film
Blue is the Warmest Color -The only movie right now that is a lock for Best Foreign Film

Best Animated Feature
Likely Nominations
The Wind Rises
Frozen

Probable Nominations
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University

Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell

Here is how the awards went.

NYFCC Award winners

Best Film
American Hustle

Best Actor
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue Is The Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Animated Film
The Wind Rises

Best Screenplay
American Hustle

Special Award
Frederick Wiseman

Best Cinematography
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best First Film
Fruitvale Station

Best Non-fiction Film (Documentary)
Stories We Tell


The National Board of Review Awards

Best Film:

Her

Best Director: 

Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor: 

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Best Actress: 

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor: 

Will Forte, Nebraska

Best Supporting Actress: 

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Best Original Screenplay: 

Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Adapted Screenplay: 

Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Feature: 

The Wind Rises

Breakthrough Performance: 

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station 

Breakthrough Performance: 

Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Directorial Debut: 

Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

Best Foreign Language Film: 

The Past

Best Documentary: 

Stories We Tell

William K. Everson Film History Award: George Stevens, Jr.

Best Ensemble: 

Prisoners

Spotlight Award: Career Collaboration of Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: Wadjda

Creative Innovation in Filmmaking Award: Gravity

Top Films

(in alphabetical order)
12 YEARS A SLAVE
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
LONE SURVIVOR
NEBRASKA
PRISONERS
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE SECRET LIFE OF MITTY
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Top 5 Foreign Language Films

(In Alphabetical Order)
BEYOND THE HILLS
GLORIA
THE GRANDMASTER
A HIJACKING
THE HUNT

Top 5 Documentaries

(In Alphabetical Order)
20 FEET FROM STARDOM
THE ACT OF KILLING
AFTER TILLER
CASTING BY
THE SQUARE

Top 10 Independent Films

(In Alphabetical Order)
AIN’T THEM BODIES SAINTS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
IN A WORLD . . .
MOTHER OF GEORGE
MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
MUD
THE PLACE BEYOND THE PINES
SHORT TERM 12
SIGHTSEERS
THE SPECTACULAR NOW

Sunday Spotlight: Oscar Predictions

Well it’s one of my favorite days of the year Oscar day.  For some inexplicable reason I have always been obsessed with the Oscars. 

This year is the second year in a row where I was not able to see all the movies nominated for Best Picture but that is not going to stop me from making predictions. 

Best Picture

The second year in a row where 9 movies are nominated and this year I only managed to see 6.  But a clear front runner has emerged

Prediction- Argo – The start of Oscar season there was no clear front runner and seemed a toss-up between Argo, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty.  But after the nominations were announced and Ben Affleck did not get a best Director nomination people felt the need to rally around Argo and has been cleaning up every award since then. 

Who Should Win- Lincoln or Django Unchained -Like I said I only have seen 6 movies in the category but as much as I liked Argo I would rather see Lincoln or Django Unchained win Best Picture. 

Best Director

With Argo the front runner for Best Picture and Affleck not nominated for Best Director it makes this category a little tougher to predict. 

Prediction – Steven Spielberg-Lincoln – Spielberg is the safe choice in this one for Academy voters.

Who Should Win – Steven Spielberg – I have seen 4 out of 5 movies in this category and while I really liked Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook I feel Spielberg did a great job of making a movie about politics a fascinating story and showed Lincoln as not only a great politician but a fully rounded person.

Best Actor

This is the one category that is a no doubter

Prediction – Daniel Day Lewis- Lincoln – He has been a front runner since it was announced he was going to star in the movie. 

Who Should Win – Daniel Day Lewis- Part of the reason Lincoln was such a great movie was Lewis’ ability to convincingly show all sides of Lincoln. Not only as a Politian, but a father, a husband, and a friend.

Best Actress

Not as easy to predict as Best Actor. Jennifer Lawrence has been getting plenty of awards leading up to the Oscars but Emmanuelle Riva has been slowly gaining a following.

Prediction – Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook I think the momentum that Riva has been getting is too little too late. 

Who Should win – Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook Hard for me to say I have only seen two performances nominated but I did love Jennifer Lawrence and she is one of the reasons that movie worked so well.

Best Original Screenplay

This seems to be a category that is kind of up in the air.  First we got the rematch between Mark Boal and Quentin Tarantino who went head to head a few years ago with Mark Boal coming out ahead for The Hurt Locker. But also in the mix this year is the love that Amour seems to be getting lately and it could pull off the upset if Boal and Tarantino split the vote.

Prediction – Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty – Zero Dark Thirty got a lot of praise early on in the Oscar season but it has really fallen off.  I think this is the one award it will win.

Who Should Win – Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained.  Tarantino is one of the most original screenwriters around who not only comes up with interesting stories but has great dialogue. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Another tough category.  Lincoln had been the front runner for so long but with the resurgence of Argo and it’s win at the Writers Guild it seems it has the momentum.  But you can’t count out Silver Linings Playbook which made a simple romantic comedy something special and the writer of Life of Pi who took what many considered an unfilmable book and made a great movie.

Prediction – Chris Terrio-Argo – again with the snub of Ben Affleck for director it seems like everyone else that worked on Argo is going to get rewarded.

Who Should Win – Tony Kushner for Lincoln like I said lots of great stuff in this category but again I am going with Tony Kushner.  The movie is about a bunch of guys talking and he managed to keep it interesting.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction – Robert De Niro- Silver Linings Playbook – I am going to predict a minor upset here.  I don’t think Alan Arkin will benefit from the Argo love but I think they are going to reward De Niro who has not won an Academy Award in over 30 years.

Who Should Win – Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained – One of the best things about Django Unchained was Waltz’s performances but I think this is the wrong category for him since he is more of a main actor then a supporting actor.  

Best Supporting Actress

This is the one category that historically has given us the biggest surprises. But the past few years it has been pretty predictable.

Prediction – Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables – Like Daniel Day Lewis she has been winning every award so far and I don’t her losing here.

Who Should Win – Amy Adams- The Master.  I have seen 4 out of the 5 movies and Les Miserables is the only one I haven’t see so I can’t say if Anne Hathaway should win. But out of the other 4 Amy Adams, Sally Field, and Helen Hunt are some of my favorite performances this year so it is hard for me to pick.  But I am going to say Amy Adams It is the one performances that truly surprised me.  She holds her with both Joaquin Phoenix and Phillip Seymour Hoffman and manages to shine. 

My picks for the rest of the categories

Best Animated Feature Film

Frankenweenie– I haven’t seen any movie in this category but I think it comes down to Frankenweenie and Wreck-it Ralph and I am going with Tim Burton this year.

Cinematography

Life of Pi - No movie looked more beautiful than Life of Pi this year but voters could go for the more traditional cinematography of Skyfall

Costume Design 

Anna Karenina – Big costume drama always wins this award

Documentary Feature

Searching for Sugar Man – Searching for Sugar Man has been getting all the pre-Oscar Awards seems like a sure thing.

Documentary Short

Open Heart – When it comes to the shorts it is a pure guess.

Film Editing

Argo – Again the Argo train I think wins it.  Although it could as easily go to Zero Dark Thirty.

Foreign Language  Film

Amour – This is as much as a sure thing as you can get

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – The makeup had to be amazing because any flaws would have been obvious at the high frame rate.

Original Score

Lincoln – because I think John Williams will finally win again after 30 years.

Original Song

Skyfall – Because it is one of the best Bond songs in a long time and everyone loves Adele

Production Design

Life of Pi – I think Life of Pi will win in most of the technical awards

Animated Short

Paperman – Not betting against Pixar in this category.

Live Action Short

Henry – another pure guess

Sound Editing

Argo – Because everyone loves Argo

Sound Mixing

Les  Miserables – Apparently having people sing live makes this hard. 

Visual Effects

Life of Pi – again the movie looked amazing and was done with mostly special effects

Oscar Update 1/27/13

Both the PGA (Producers Guild of America) and the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) awards were this weekend and have produced some clear frontrunners in the Oscar race. 

Since the actors branch at the Academy is the largest voting block their choices really help put in perspective who will win.  So, let’s start with the givens.  After pretty much winning everything they have been nominated for Daniel Day-Lewis and Ann Hathaway will win Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress respectively.  Either one of them losing would be a big upset. 

For Best Actress there has been a two person race between Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Lining’s Playbook and Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty.  After an initial surge for Zero Dark Thirty at the beginning of award season Zero Dark Thirty has fallen out of favor.  After winning the Golden Globe and SAG Award Jennifer Lawrence looks like the front runner but I am not ready to say it is a sure thing. 

Best Supporting Actor is still a wide open race.  Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG for Lincoln which puts him at an advantage but he has not won any other awards for the role.  I think some might feel sentimental for Robert DeNiro who has not been nominated since 1991 for Cape Fear and has not won since 1980 for Raging Bull. Right now I would put them even. 

The Best Picture race is starting to become clearer and looks like it could make history. 

The PGA is one of the best predictors of who will win the Best Picture at the Oscars.  Only 7 times in the last 24 years has a movie won at the PGA and not won Best Picture.  With Argo winning the PGA and also winning Best Ensemble at the SAG this clearly puts it as a front runner.  Why isn’t it a sure thing then? Well that is because only 3 times in Oscar history has a movie won Best Picture without being nominated for Best Director.  So, history is giving us conflicting answers. 

The three movies that won Best Picture without even being nominated for Best Director

1927 Wings at the first ever Academy Awards

1932 Grand Hotel (the only movie to win without any other nominations)

1989 Driving Ms. Daisy

The Seven Movies that Won the DGA but lost Best Picture

1992 The Crying Game lost Best Picture to Unforgiven

1995 Apollo 13 lost Best Picture to Braveheart

1998 Saving Private Ryan lost Best Picture to Shakespeare in Love

2001 Moulin Rouge! lost Best Picture to A Beautiful Mind

2004 The Aviator lost Best Picture to Million Dollar Baby

2005 Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture to Crash

2006 Little Miss Sunshine lost Best Picture to The Departed

Friday we will see what the Directors Guild has to say and things could get really interesting. 

Sunday Spotlight: Jennifer Lawrence the Girl on Fire

Jennifer Lawrence is having a great month so far.  Nominated for her second Academy Awards, winning a Golden Globe, and hosting Saturday Night Live.  This week is just the tip of the iceberg.  She had a fantastic year in 2012 and is having an amazing start to her career.  At 22 she already has an impressive resume.

Her breakthrough came in 2010 when Winter's Bone premiered at Sundance and won the Grand Jury Prize. For the role of mountain girl Ree she learned to hunt and skin raccoons.  The movie did not do well in the theaters but did get lots of critical praise and earned several Academy Award nominations including one for Jennifer for Best Actress.  At the time she was the second youngest Actress to earn a Best Actress nomination.

Earning an Oscar nomination as a young actor or actress does not mean you will go on to have a successful career.  Just ask Haley Joel Osment, Keisha Castle-Hughes, and to a lesser extent Ellen Paige.  But somehow Jennifer defied the odds.  While some actresses find success in big budget franchise hits and some find critical praise in independent films Jennifer was able to do both

Right after the Oscars Jennifer signed on to her first big budget franchise as Mystique in X-Men: First Class. After two disappointing movies in the X-Men franchise First Class needed to be good to rejuvenate the franchise.  Casting a somewhat unknown in the role of a main character was a bit of a gamble but it paid off.  Jennifer was great in the role and was one of the reasons the movie was a successful.

Somehow she also had time to land a role that would define her even more.  The Hunger Games was a hugely popular book and there were many actresses up for the part of Katniss.  After she was cast die hard fans were upset that she wouldn't look right or was too old for the part. But,  by the time movie came out in 2012 whatever doubts fans had about her were gone.  The movie became one of the biggest hits of the year and it was her performance that made the move so good. Fans adored her in the role and she won the MTV Movie Award for Best Actress and was nominated for a Peoples Choice Award.

But she wasn't done in 2012.  Proving that she has real acting skill she did another independent movie Silver Linings Playbook.  As Tiffany a girl with issues she showed she can create a complex character.  So after winning over fans with X:Men and The Hunger Games she won over critics again with this one.  She won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical and is nominated and considered a front runner by some for Best Actress at the Oscars.

I can't forget to mention that in 2012 she was also in the horror remake House at the End of the Street.  This unfortunately was not her best choice but lucky for her it came out in the middle of the year and is sandwiched between her two successful movies.

Also another random fact.  She had a small role in Like Crazy which won The Grand Jury Prize at Sundance in 2011 so she was in two Grand Jury Prize winners in back to back years.

In summary.  Very few people can keep their critical praise and do giant blockbuster franchises especially a young actress.  But she has done it and has two Oscar Nominations and stars in two franchises that have to work their shooting schedules around her.  My only hope is that the pressure doesn't get to her and she can keep giving us great performances.

2013 Oscar Nomination Predication

Here are my annual Oscar Nomination Predictions. 

I am going for a few surprises.  The biggest being that Silver Linings Playbook will be the first movie since 2004’s Million Dollar Baby to be nominated for the Top 5 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, and Actress) although the Director and Actor nominations are the shakiest.

Best Picture- This year like last year there is not a specified number of Best Picture nominees.  There could be anything from 5 – 10.  Last year we ended up with 9 this year I am predicting 8.

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserable

Lincoln

Life of Pi

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

If it does make it to 10 here are the two movies I think will be number 9 and 10

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Best Director- With all those Best Picture nominations it is hard to figure out which directors will get nominated for Best Director.  Tarantino feels like the big one missing from this list but Ang Lee did get the Directors Guild nomination.    

Ben Affleck (Argo)

Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Actor-There have been lots of talk about Denzel Washington making the list for Flight but I am guessing he gets snubbed. 

Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

John Hawkes (The Sessions)

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Actress – Naomi Watts has been getting lots of talk recently for The Impossible she could make the list but I think it might be too little too late.

Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Marrion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz was fantastic in Django Unchained but I consider him more a lead and not supporting actor and am guessing the Academy will also.

Alan Arkin (Argo)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Supporting Actress- Pretty crowded field and maybe adding Ann Dowd is just my wish but there has been lots of talk and think she can pull off that 5^th spot.

Ann Dowd (Compliance)

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Sally Field (Lincoln)

Amy Adams (The Master)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Best Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

Paranorman

Rise of the Guardians

Wreck-It Ralph

Best Original Screenplay-Looper is going to be my surprise pick for this category. 

Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Rian Johnson (Looper)

Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)

Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Chris Terrio (Argo)

William Nicholson (Les Miserables)

David Magee (Life of Pi)

Tony Kushner (Lincoln)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

The Movies that Shaped My Obession

I figured if you are going to read my movie reviews, which I hope you do, you might want to know a little about me and the movies I like.

People always ask have I always wanted to be a film critic? The answer is no. My passion and obsession with movies grew gradually. I have always like movies. Even as a kid I would watch movies all the time. The Goonies and Stand by Me were some of my favorite movies as a kid. But it wasn’t until my college years that movies became an obsession.

I decided to make a list of movies that played an important part of shaping my passion. This is not a list of my favorite movies because it is a movie that I didn’t like that probably had the biggest impact. But I will start with the movie that had a big impact on me as a kid.

 

 

The Stuff- I am sure very few people have even heard of this movie, but it does play an important part in my movie history. While it is not the first movie I saw in the theatre (my parents took me to see E.T. at a drive in but I fell asleep) it is one of the first horror movies I saw. At a sleepover when I was in 4^th grade my friend rented a bunch of horror movies and the first one we watched was The Stuff. For those that don’t know it is about this stuff that looks like marshmallow fluff that turns people to zombies. Stupid premise but to a nine year old it was great. That night we also watched A Nightmare on Elm Street and Halloween 2. While A Nightmare on Elm St. has become one of my favorite horror movies The Stuff still holds a special place as the first horror movie I saw. After that my and my friend would rent all the horror movies we could. I think this disturbed my mom a little because she would always say “Why don’t you get something nice like a Disney movie” Don’t worry mom I turned out ok even after watching all those horror movies.

 

 

Titanic- OK I know what you’re thinking “Titanic really?” Well yes. For a movie I didn’t like very much it had a big impact on my relationship with movies. This is when my obsession really started. The two main effects of the movie had little to do with the movie itself and more to do with the way it was received in the world. The first effect was the box office. The amount of money it made was amazing and the number of weeks it spent at number 1 unprecedented and has yet to be matched. It intrigued me to why a movie that I felt was mediocre at best (at the time I would have said it was awful) was doing so well. Because of that I started checking the box office results weekly. I found a website and would read it a couple of times a week. I was fascinated by why some movies made a lot of money and others didn’t and why movies that made a lot opening weekend weren’t the ones that were number 1 all time. For a while I had the top 10 grossing movies of all time and the top 10 opening weekends memorized. The second big effect Titanic had on me was my obsession with The Oscars. Which is still somewhat inexplicable why I am so obsessed to this day. I remember watching the Oscars with my mom as a kid and we would always try to guess who was going to win even though we hadn’t seen any of the movies. But when Titanic was getting all the Oscar talk about best picture I couldn’t believe it. So, I made it a point to watch every other movie that was nominated that year (I still think Good Will Hunting should have won). But after that it was all over. I have seen every movie nominated for best picture since then. I now follow the Oscar race closely and always have an idea of who the favorites are to be nominated. Every year I try to see all the nominees before the nominations are even announced so when the Academy gets it wrong I can authoritatively say who I think should have won. My obsession with the Oscars culminated with me watching every movie that won best picture and blogging about it. Check out that blog at www.stevesmoviepage.blogspot.com.

 

 

Men in Black- While Men in Black was a good movie the reason it is on here is because it was the first movie I ever saw by myself in the theatre. There was something always a little weird about going to see a movie by myself. One summer day in Boston it was hot and I was bored. Most of my friends went home for summer break so I decided to see a movie by myself. The first time it felt weird and like everyone was looking at me. And even after the first time it was a while before I did it a second time. Then I met someone who was also a big movie buff and he said he goes to movies by himself all the time. This made me feel a little better. When I moved to Wisconsin and didn’t have any friends in the area it became commonplace to see a movie by myself. While most of the movies I see now are by myself there are times when it does get depressing and I say I won’t go to another movie by myself. But that doesn’t usually last long.

 

 

Super Size Me- This is the movie that opened my eyes to how good documentaries could be. It was funny and informative. Before it I always thought that documentaries were boring educational movies. But after seeing Super Size Me I was hooked. Documentaries are now one of my favorite types of movies. I try to convince people to give them a chance that they are not all as boring as some people think they are.

 

 

Casablanca- You might be wondering why an old movie is on this list. Well this is the movie that made me realize that old B&W movies can be good. I am ashamed to admit that I use to think that old movies were just boring and if it wasn’t in color it wasn’t worth watching. In 1998 the American Film Institute (AFI) released their 100 Greatest Movies of all time. After I moved to Wisconsin I had a lot of free time and Blockbuster was still around and had this deal where you could rent one new movie and get an older movie for free. Well never one to pass up a deal I decided to watch all the movies on the 100 Greatest Movies of All Time list. Casablanca was listed a number 2 and I couldn’t believe how great that movie was. Bogart is amazing the dialogue was great. I loved it. And I went on to watch the rest of the movies on the list thanks to Blockbuster and TCM. After that was done I watched the 100 Greatest Thrills and started watching movies that were on IMDB Top 250. I now have a pretty good list of favorite older movies. Even though the AFI Lists are criticized for not having foreign film’s on it. I credit it and Casablanca with introducing me to great old movies.

 

Stephanie Daley- A movie I am pretty sure no one has ever heard of but it in 2006 it was the first movie I saw at Sundance. Going to Sundance in 2006 was a complete fluke. My dad invited me on a ski trip to Salt Lake City and while I was looking into the trip I discovered that Sundance was going to be going on the same time he was planning on going. I figured it would be impossible for me to get tickets but it turned out that it is not that hard. So, I flew in a few days before my dad and saw a couple of movies including Stephanie Daley, and I was hooked. I have been back 3 times since and now watch a larger variety of independent films. One year I got tickets to the documentary short program and that has become one of my must sees every year I go now. It also led me to being on the Short Film Selection Committee for the Milwaukee Film Festival. 

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