Oscar Season 2013

This week we saw the first two critic awards of the season.  First The New York Film Critic Circle announced their awards on Tuesday then The National Board of Review announced their awards on Wednesday.

To sum it up after 2 awards there are no clear front runner.  The NYFCC named American Hustle as Best Picture while American Hustle got shut out at The National Board of Review as they named Spike Jonze's Her as Best Picture.  What I like about NBR is that they list their Top 10 so while their winner doesn't usually win Best Picture their Top 10 usually is a good indicator of what movies we will be taking about the next month.  Worth noting is that American Hustle didn't even crack the NBR's Top 10 but The Secret Life of Walter Mitty did which has not been getting much buzz at all.

What does this all mean? Well of course it's too early to say. But it is obvious that this year has a crop of movies that at this point are all kind of equal.  While I still think 12 Years a Slave is the front runner but it is still early.  Also The Wolf of Wall Street is kind of an unknown as most critics have not seen it.

Here are the my predictions at this point

Best Picture
Very Likely Nominations
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis

Probable Nomination
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
All is Lost

Long Shot
Philomena
The Butler
Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Director
Very Likely Nomination
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Possible Nomination
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Long Shots
Spike Jonze (Her)
Lee Daniels (The Butler)

Best Actor
Likely Nominations
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Possible Nominations
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Oscar Issacs (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)


Long Shot
Forrest Whitiker (The Butler)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Best Actress
Likely Nominations
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Emma Thompsons (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Long Shots
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)-Never thought I would list Meryl Streep as a long shot but have not heard much buzz at all.

Best Supporting Actor
Likely Nominations
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Long Shot
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Best Supporting Actress-
Likely Nominations
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Possible Nominations
Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Long Shot
Scarlett Johansson (Her)

Best Original Screenplay
Likely Nominations
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel (Saving Mr. Banks)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)

Probable Nominations
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Eric Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Nominations

Terence Winter (Wolf of Wall Street)

John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

Probable Nominations
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)

Best Foreign Film
Blue is the Warmest Color -The only movie right now that is a lock for Best Foreign Film

Best Animated Feature
Likely Nominations
The Wind Rises
Frozen

Probable Nominations
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University

Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell

Here is how the awards went.

NYFCC Award winners

Best Film
American Hustle

Best Actor
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue Is The Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Animated Film
The Wind Rises

Best Screenplay
American Hustle

Special Award
Frederick Wiseman

Best Cinematography
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best First Film
Fruitvale Station

Best Non-fiction Film (Documentary)
Stories We Tell


The National Board of Review Awards

Best Film:

Her

Best Director: 

Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor: 

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Best Actress: 

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor: 

Will Forte, Nebraska

Best Supporting Actress: 

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Best Original Screenplay: 

Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Adapted Screenplay: 

Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Feature: 

The Wind Rises

Breakthrough Performance: 

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station 

Breakthrough Performance: 

Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Directorial Debut: 

Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

Best Foreign Language Film: 

The Past

Best Documentary: 

Stories We Tell

William K. Everson Film History Award: George Stevens, Jr.

Best Ensemble: 

Prisoners

Spotlight Award: Career Collaboration of Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: Wadjda

Creative Innovation in Filmmaking Award: Gravity

Top Films

(in alphabetical order)
12 YEARS A SLAVE
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
LONE SURVIVOR
NEBRASKA
PRISONERS
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE SECRET LIFE OF MITTY
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Top 5 Foreign Language Films

(In Alphabetical Order)
BEYOND THE HILLS
GLORIA
THE GRANDMASTER
A HIJACKING
THE HUNT

Top 5 Documentaries

(In Alphabetical Order)
20 FEET FROM STARDOM
THE ACT OF KILLING
AFTER TILLER
CASTING BY
THE SQUARE

Top 10 Independent Films

(In Alphabetical Order)
AIN’T THEM BODIES SAINTS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
IN A WORLD . . .
MOTHER OF GEORGE
MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
MUD
THE PLACE BEYOND THE PINES
SHORT TERM 12
SIGHTSEERS
THE SPECTACULAR NOW