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Monday, December 16, 2013

Oscar Season 2013 Update




Now that the LA Film Critics, the Boston Film Critics, AFI have, the Golden Globe nominations, the SAG Nominations have been announced let’s see how the Oscar race has changed. 
The LA Film Critics has had a track record of going its own way with Best Picture and it doesn’t usually line up with the Oscars but their acting picks are good indications of were the buzz is going.  And since the actors are the biggest voting branch for the Oscars their selections of the SAG awards are an important indicator and The Butler gets the biggest bump because of that.  AFI lists 10 movies in no particular order and no big surprises it’s pretty much the same 10 movies everyone has already been talking about.  The Golden Globe Nominations with their splitting of categories between Drama and Comedy make it hard for any movie to really gain momentum but the lack of nominations for Saving Mr. Banks might hurt it a bit.   Also this year their decisions on what is a drama and comedy seem a bit odd.  Anyway here are my predictions and the actually winners are listed below. 

Best Picture
Very Likely Nominations
12 Years a Slave-Still my pick to win it all. 
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
American Hustle-getting some backlash already so but still likely to get a nom.
Her-Added this to the likely nomination because it is getting a lot of praise.  Not sure if it can pull out a win though. 

Probable Nomination
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station

Long Shot
Philomena
The Butler
Blue is the Warmest Color
All is Lost-Despite everyone loving it seems not likely to get a nomination but definitely an acting nomination and possibly a screenwriting.


Best Director
Very Likely Nomination
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Possible Nomination
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Long Shots
Spike Jonze (Her)
Lee Daniels (The Butler)

Best Actor
Likely Nominations
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Possible Nominations-with those 4 almost guaranteed a nomination hard to say who the 5th spot will go to. 
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Oscar Issacs (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)

Long Shot
Forrest Whitiker (The Butler)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Best Actress
Likely Nominations
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Emma Thompsons (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)


Long Shots
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Best Supporting Actor
Likely Nominations
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Long Shot
James Franco (Spring Breakers)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)-he is gaining momentum but still don’t see it happening. 
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Best Supporting Actress-
Likely Nominations
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Possible Nominations
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Long Shot
Scarlett Johansson (Her)

Best Original Screenplay
Likely Nominations
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel (Saving Mr. Banks)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)

Probable Nominations
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Eric Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Long Shots
J.C. Chandor (All is Lost)
Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Nominations
Terence Winter (Wolf of Wall Street)
John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

Probable Nominations
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)
Tracy Letts (August: Osage County)

Long Shots
Steve Conrad (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)

Best Foreign Film
Likely Nominations
Blue is the Warmest Color -The only movie right now that is a lock for Best Foreign Film

Probably Nominations
The Past
The Great Beauty


Best Animated Feature
Likely Nominations
The Wind Rises
Frozen

Probable Nominations
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University

Best Documentary
Likely Nominations
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell

Probable Nominations
Blackfish
The Square  

LA Film Critics

Film:
Tie, Gravity and Her

Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (Runner-up: Spike Jonze, Her.)

Actor:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska (Runner-up: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave.)

Actress:
Tie, Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, and Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color.

Documentary:
Stories We Tell (Runner-up: The Act of Killing.)

Supporting actress:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (Runner-up: June Squibb, Nebraska.)

Supporting actor:
Tie, James Franco, Spring Breakers, and Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club.

Screenplay:
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight  (Runner Up: Spike Jonze, Her)

Animation:
Ernest & Celestine (Runner-up: The Wind Rises.)

Cinematography:
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity. (Runner-up, Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis.)

Film Editing:
Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity. (Runner-up: Shane Carruth andDavid Lowery, Upstream Color.)

Score:
T Bone Burnett, Inside Llewyn Davis (Runner-up: Arcade Fire and Owen Pallett, Her.)

Production design:
K.K. Barrett, Her. (Runner-up: Jess Gonchor, Inside Llewyn Davis.)

Foreign-language film:
Blue Is the Warmest Color. (Runner-up: The Great Beauty.)


Boston Film Critics

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor
 James Gandolfini for Enough Said

Best Supporting Actress
June Squibb for Nebraska

Best Director
Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

Best Screenplay
Nicole Holofcener for Enough Said

Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki for Gravity

Best Documentary
The Act of Killing

Best Foreign-Language Film
Wadjda

Best Animated Film
The Wind Rises

Best Film Editing (awarded in memory of Karen Schmeer)
Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill for Rush

Best New Filmmaker (awarded in memory of David Brudnoy) - 
Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station

Best Ensemble Cast
Nebraska

Best Use of Music in a Film
Inside Llewyn Davis

AFI
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniels' The Butler

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
All is Lost
Fast & Furious 6
Lone Survivor
Rush
The Wolverine
 
GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

Best Motion Picture - Drama
"12 Years a Slave"
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"Philomena"
"Rush"

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
"American Hustle"
"Her"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Nebraska"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"
Judi Dench, "Philomena"
Emma Thompson, "Saving Mr. Banks"
Kate Winslet, "Labor Day"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years A Slave"
Idris Elba, "Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom"
Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Robert Redford, "All Is Lost"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Amy Adams, "American Hustle"
Julie Delpy, "Before Midnight"
Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Enough Said"
Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale, "American Hustle"
Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Oscar Isaac, "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Her"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Sally Hawkins, "Blue Jasmine"
Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years A Slave"
Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"
June Squibb, "Nebraska"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
Daniel Bruhl, "Rush"
Bradley Cooper, "American Hustle"
Michael Fassbender, "12 Years A Slave"
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, "Gravity"
Paul Greengrass, "Captain Phillips"
Steve McQueen, "12 Years A Slave"
Alexander Payne, "Nebraska"
David O. Russell, "American Hustle"

Best Screenplay
Spike Jonze, "Her"
Bob Nelson, "Nebraska"
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, "Philomena"
John Ridley, "12 Years a Slave"
David O. Russell, "American Hustle"

Best Animated Film
"The Croods"
"Despicable Me 2"
"Frozen"

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
"All Is Lost"
"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
"Gravity"
"The Book Thief"
"12 Years a Slave"

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
"Atlas," Coldplay ("The Hunger Games: Catching Fire")
"Let It Go," Idina Menzel ("Frozen")
"Ordinary Love," U2 ("Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom")
"Please Mr. Kennedy," Oscar Isaac, Justin Timberlake and Adam Driver ("Inside Llewyn Davis")
"Sweet Than Fiction," Taylor Swift ("One Chance")

Best Foreign Language Film
"Blue Is The Warmest Color" (France)
"The Great Beauty" (Italy)
"The Hunt" (Denmark)
"The Past" (Iran)
"The Wind Rises" (Japan)


Friday, December 6, 2013

Oscar Season 2013


This week we saw the first two critic awards of the season.  First The New York Film Critic Circle announced their awards on Tuesday then The National Board of Review announced their awards on Wednesday.

To sum it up after 2 awards there are no clear front runner.  The NYFCC named American Hustle as Best Picture while American Hustle got shut out at The National Board of Review as they named Spike Jonze's Her as Best Picture.  What I like about NBR is that they list their Top 10 so while their winner doesn't usually win Best Picture their Top 10 usually is a good indicator of what movies we will be taking about the next month.  Worth noting is that American Hustle didn't even crack the NBR's Top 10 but The Secret Life of Walter Mitty did which has not been getting much buzz at all.

What does this all mean? Well of course it's too early to say. But it is obvious that this year has a crop of movies that at this point are all kind of equal.  While I still think 12 Years a Slave is the front runner but it is still early.  Also The Wolf of Wall Street is kind of an unknown as most critics have not seen it.

Here are the my predictions at this point

Best Picture
Very Likely Nominations
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis

Probable Nomination
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
All is Lost

Long Shot
Philomena
The Butler
Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Director
Very Likely Nomination
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Possible Nomination
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Long Shots
Spike Jonze (Her)
Lee Daniels (The Butler)

Best Actor
Likely Nominations
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Possible Nominations
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Oscar Issacs (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)


Long Shot
Forrest Whitiker (The Butler)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Best Actress
Likely Nominations
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Emma Thompsons (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Long Shots
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)-Never thought I would list Meryl Streep as a long shot but have not heard much buzz at all.

Best Supporting Actor
Likely Nominations
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

Possible Nominations
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Long Shot
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Best Supporting Actress-
Likely Nominations
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Possible Nominations
Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Long Shot
Scarlett Johansson (Her)

Best Original Screenplay
Likely Nominations
The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel (Saving Mr. Banks)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)

Probable Nominations
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Eric Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Likely Nominations
Terence Winter (Wolf of Wall Street)
John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

Probable Nominations
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)

Best Foreign Film
Blue is the Warmest Color -The only movie right now that is a lock for Best Foreign Film

Best Animated Feature
Likely Nominations
The Wind Rises
Frozen

Probable Nominations
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University

Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell

Here is how the awards went.

NYFCC Award winners

Best Film
American Hustle

Best Actor
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue Is The Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Animated Film
The Wind Rises

Best Screenplay
American Hustle

Special Award
Frederick Wiseman

Best Cinematography
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best First Film
Fruitvale Station

Best Non-fiction Film (Documentary)
Stories We Tell


The National Board of Review Awards

Best Film:
Her

Best Director: 
Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor: 
Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Best Actress: 
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor: 
Will Forte, Nebraska

Best Supporting Actress: 
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Best Original Screenplay: 
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Adapted Screenplay: 
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Feature: 
The Wind Rises

Breakthrough Performance: 
Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station 

Breakthrough Performance: 
Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Directorial Debut: 
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

Best Foreign Language Film: 
The Past

Best Documentary: 
Stories We Tell

William K. Everson Film History Award: George Stevens, Jr.

Best Ensemble: 
Prisoners

Spotlight Award: Career Collaboration of Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: Wadjda

Creative Innovation in Filmmaking Award: Gravity

Top Films

(in alphabetical order)
12 YEARS A SLAVE
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
LONE SURVIVOR
NEBRASKA
PRISONERS
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE SECRET LIFE OF MITTY
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Top 5 Foreign Language Films

(In Alphabetical Order)
BEYOND THE HILLS
GLORIA
THE GRANDMASTER
A HIJACKING
THE HUNT

Top 5 Documentaries
(In Alphabetical Order)
20 FEET FROM STARDOM
THE ACT OF KILLING
AFTER TILLER
CASTING BY
THE SQUARE

Top 10 Independent Films

(In Alphabetical Order)
AIN’T THEM BODIES SAINTS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
IN A WORLD . . .
MOTHER OF GEORGE
MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
MUD
THE PLACE BEYOND THE PINES
SHORT TERM 12
SIGHTSEERS
THE SPECTACULAR NOW