Oscar Watch

So award season is in full swing now.  Two big awards were announced this week and the major players of the Oscars are really starting to come in focus.

First on Monday the New York Film Critics announced their awards.
The big winner was Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty.  It won Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Cinematographer. For a movie that not many people have seen it is a good start.
The other big winner was Lincoln which one Best Actor (Danial Day Lewis), Best Supporting Actress (Sally Field), and Best Screenplay. Rachel Weisz Best Actress  movie that has not been getting a lot of buzz Deep Blue Sea.  And adding to his buzz Matthew McConaughey won best supporting actor for two movies Bernie and Magic Mike.  Amour continues to be the go to movie for best foreign film.  The category that surprised me the was Frankenweenie winning Best Animated Feature over more critically acclaimed movies like Wreck-It Ralph and Brave.   The New York based documentary The Central Park Five won Best Documentary increasing it's profile but being of interest to New Yorkers not sure how it will play in the rest of the country.

Then on Wednesday the National Board of Review of Motion Pictures also named Zero Dark Thirty  Best Picture and Bigelow Best Director.  The NBR also named Jessica Chastain best actress.  Pushing Zero Dark Thirty to the top of the list for winning Best Picture.  What I like about NBR is that they name the Top 10 movies of the year.  So while their pick of winner doesn't usually match up with the Oscar winner but you can count on most of their top 10 being nominated.  A few of the surprising among the list are The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Looper, and Promised Land.  Probably the biggest shocker of the awards was the selection of Bradley Cooper for Best Actor over Daniel Day Lewis.  While I think Cooper will get nominated I still see DDL as the front runner for winning.  Leonardo DiCaprio won Best Supporting Actor for Django Unchained a performance I have heard little buzz about but that might increase as more people see the movie. 

Right now my predictions for Nominations based on Buzz not my opinion of what is best.

Best Picture
Very Likely Nominations
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Argo

Probable Nomination
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit
Django Unchained
The Master

Long Shot
The Sessions
Moonrise Kingdom

Best Director
Very Likely Nomination
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ben Affleck (Argo)

Possible Nomination
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit)

Long Shots
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Best Actor
Likely Nominations
Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln) Still the favorite to win
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Possible Nominations
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Long Shot
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)

Best Actress
Likely Nominations
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Possible Nominations
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Hellen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Marrion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

Long Shots
Mary Elizabeth WInstead (Smashed)
Rachel Weisz (Deep Blue Sea)

Best Supporting Actor
Likely Nominations
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Possible Nominations
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
John Goodman (Argo)
Alan Arkin (Argo)

Long Shot
William H. Macy (The Sessions)

Best Supporting Actress- Unlike best lead actress this one is a crowded field
Likely Nominations
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Amy Adams (The Master)

Possible Nominations
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Long Shot
Judi Dench (Skyfall)

Best Foreign Film
Amour seems to be the only lock and likely to win

Best Animated Feature
Likely Nominations
Wreck-It Ralph
Rise of the Guardians
Brave

Probable Nominations
Frankenweenie
Paranorman